Myanmar

UNHCR data indicate 2025 was the deadliest year on record for Rohingya sea movements—about 900 dead or missing among 6,500 crossings—and departures persist in 2026 (>2,800 so far; a boat that left March 26 reportedly capsized, leaving at least 250 missing), driven by conflict, persecution, aid cuts, and bleak prospects in Bangladesh’s camps. Concurrent accounts from Cox’s Bazar show refugees “drained” by trauma as trafficking networks exploit coordination gaps; identified victims rose 28.8% (33% women/girls, 25% under 18). With no readout from Wang Yi’s meeting in Naypyidaw, watch whether regional actors convert contact into cooperation, safe legal pathways, and funding for the 2025 Joint Response Plan as urged by UNHCR.

Tracking: Myanmar · NUG · Rohingya

Geography: Myanmar, Rakhine State, Naypyidaw, Yangon, Bangladesh, Cox's Bazar, Bhasan Char, The Hague, Thailand-Myanmar border, Malaysia, India (Northeast), Bay of Bengal, Naf River

1. UNHCR: Nearly 900 Rohingya dead or missing in 2025 sea journeys

UNHCR reports nearly 900 Rohingya refugees dead or missing in 2025 maritime journeys across the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal, marking the deadliest year on record for South and Southeast Asian sea movements.

Of 6,500 attempting crossings last year, about one in seven died or disappeared—the highest mortality rate among major global sea routes. Women and children comprised over half of recent departures.

The trend continues in 2026, with more than 2,800 Rohingya embarking between January and April 13. A boat that left Bangladesh on March 26 reportedly capsized, leaving at least 250 missing; nine survivors were rescued near the Andaman Islands on April 9.

Boats, often overcrowded and unseaworthy, typically depart Cox’s Bazar or Rakhine State toward Indonesia or Malaysia.

UNHCR links continued departures to conflict, persecution, and lack of citizenship prospects, alongside aid cuts, insecurity, and limited opportunities in Bangladesh’s camps, and urges root-cause action, safe legal pathways, regional cooperation, and funding for the 2025 Joint Response Plan.

Key facts:

- Nearly 900 Rohingya dead or missing in 2025 maritime journeys, says UNHCR.

- Of 6,500 attempting in 2025, about one in seven died or disappeared.

- More than 2,800 Rohingya sailed between January and April 13, 2026.

- At least 250 missing after a March 26 capsizing; nine rescued April 9.

- The 2025 Rohingya Joint Response Plan is only 53% funded; 1.2 million in Bangladesh.

Why it matters: Record mortality and persistent departures indicate a deepening protection crisis. Underfunded aid in Bangladesh and lack of citizenship prospects in Myanmar are pushing onward movement, while traffickers exploit refugees amid limited legal pathways. Indonesia and Malaysia will likely see continued arrivals, straining regional search-and-rescue and coordination unless cooperation improves. Fully funding the 2025 Joint Response Plan and opening safe routes are immediate levers to reduce deaths.

2. Chinese FM Wang Yi meets Myanmar counterpart U Tin Maung Swe in Naypyidaw

On Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Myanmar’s Union Minister for Foreign Affairs U Tin Maung Swe at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs complex in Naypyidaw.

The report specifies the venue and participants but provides no details on agenda, topics discussed, or outcomes. The setting—a formal meeting at Myanmar’s foreign ministry headquarters—highlights direct, high-level contact between Beijing and Naypyidaw’s diplomatic leadership.

While the absence of a readout limits visibility into the substance of the engagement, the timing and location underscore that official channels remain active.

Given the lack of disclosed deliverables, observers will need to watch for subsequent statements, follow‑on visits, or official communiqués to determine whether this meeting signals any policy shifts or concrete initiatives.

For now, the key takeaway is the confirmation of a face‑to‑face ministerial meeting in Myanmar’s capital involving China’s top diplomat and Myanmar’s foreign minister, with further implications dependent on any future disclosures.

Key facts:

- The meeting occurred Saturday in Naypyidaw’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs complex.

- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi attended the meeting.

- Myanmar’s Union Minister for Foreign Affairs U Tin Maung Swe met Wang Yi.

Why it matters: The encounter underscores sustained, high‑level diplomatic contact between Beijing and Myanmar’s foreign ministry. With no agenda or outcomes disclosed, it signals engagement but not direction. Any subsequent readouts or follow‑up activity will clarify priorities and whether this meeting precedes tangible initiatives. Watch for official statements, additional visits, or agreements that indicate next steps.

3. UN refugee chief: Rohingya in Bangladesh “drained” by trauma

Reuters reports the UN refugee chief warned that hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims who fled violence in Myanmar to Bangladesh are “drained” by the trauma they endured.

His assessment underscores the prolonged psychological toll of mass displacement and the strain on refugees’ coping capacity years into exile.

The remarks highlight the depth of unmet needs in Bangladesh’s Rohingya camps and the importance of sustained protection and support, particularly for mental health and psychosocial care.

With large refugee populations still in limbo, the statement signals that short-term relief alone is insufficient, and that long-term, trauma-informed assistance remains essential as safe, voluntary, and dignified return remains uncertain.

Key facts:

- UN refugee chief: Rohingya in Bangladesh are “drained” by trauma.

- Hundreds of thousands fled Myanmar to Bangladesh amid violence.

- Reuters published the report seven hours ago.

Why it matters: Severe, protracted trauma erodes community resilience, heightens protection risks, and complicates any future return planning. Without sustained, trauma-focused aid and protection in Bangladesh, conditions in the camps may deteriorate, increasing vulnerability and reducing prospects for safe, voluntary solutions.

4. Experts urge coordinated action against Rohingya camp trafficking at BRAC workshop

At a BRAC-organised workshop in Cox’s Bazar on Saturday, government, law-enforcement, judicial, and humanitarian actors warned that human trafficking in the Rohingya camps persists amid systemic coordination gaps.

Participants cited barriers that keep survivors from justice: weak evidence collection and management, high vulnerability in the camps, heavy police workloads, frequent staff transfers, difficulty registering cases, and informal settlements of serious crimes.

The Anti-Trafficking Working Group’s 2025 report presented at the event said 33% of identified victims are women and girls, 25% are under 18, and overall victim numbers rose 28. 8% from the previous year.

BRAC reported providing legal assistance to 784 survivors between 2017 and March 2026 and training 400 Rohingya teachers, volunteers, and leaders across 18 prevention sessions.

Presenters included BRAC’s Md Tanvir Islam and APBn Assistant Superintendent Fakhrul Hasan; attendees included Camp 17’s Camp-in-Charge Tapti Chakma, IOM and UNHCR representatives, and Senior District Judge Mohammed Saifur Rahman Siddique.

The session sought actionable recommendations to improve coordination among the judiciary, police, and camp authorities.

Key facts:

- Workshop held Saturday in Cox's Bazar on trafficking and protection issues.

- Experts urged stronger coordination among judiciary, law enforcement, and camp authorities.

- ATWG 2025 report: 33% victims are women and girls; 25% under 18.

- Victim numbers rose 28.8% in 2025 from the previous year.

- BRAC provided legal assistance to 784 survivors since 2017 to March 2026.

Why it matters: Rising victim numbers alongside persistent justice bottlenecks indicate traffickers can exploit procedural weaknesses with limited accountability. Improved coordination among police, courts, and camp authorities is the clearest lever to reduce impunity—streamlining evidence handling, case registration, and survivor referrals. The presence of APBn, the judiciary, IOM, and UNHCR creates an opening to standardise joint protocols and data-sharing. Watch for tangible follow-through: interagency SOPs, case-tracking mechanisms, survivor-safe reporting pathways, and resources to ease police and court workloads. Without such steps, exploitation risks will deepen and trust in formal justice will erode.

5. Rohingya risk deadly sea crossings as smugglers exploit Cox’s Bazar despair

A Le Monde report from Cox’s Bazar spotlights how trafficking networks prey on Rohingya trapped in protracted uncertainty.

In Kutupalong—the world’s largest refugee camp—friends recall 28-year-old community volunteer Mohammad Ullah, who buoyed spirits and warned peers against smugglers promising a better life.

He and tens of thousands arrived after the 2017 exodus, when some 750,000 Rohingya fled atrocities in Myanmar’s Rakhine State; the United Nations called the crackdown “ethnic cleansing,” while the United States termed it “genocide.

” Against daily “uncertainty” and “suffering,” smugglers push thousands each year onto perilous sea journeys toward Thailand, Malaysia, or Indonesia.

A recent image from April 17, 2026, shows the camp’s strained market life, underscoring the stagnant conditions that enable a business “built on misery.

” The narrative illustrates how prolonged displacement and the absence of safe, legal options sustain trafficking pipelines from Bangladesh’s camps to maritime routes across the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

Key facts:

- A photo from April 17, 2026 shows a Cox’s Bazar camp market.

- Some 750,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar’s Rakhine State in 2017.

- The UN labeled the 2017 crackdown “ethnic cleansing.”

- The United States termed the crackdown “genocide.”

- Smugglers push thousands yearly toward Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

Why it matters: Persistent camp hardship and prolonged displacement create openings for smugglers, sustaining deadly maritime departures. Without safer pathways and durable solutions, trafficking networks will keep exploiting Rohingya vulnerability and driving perilous regional movements.