Myanmar

Beijing’s high‑level endorsement of Myanmar’s new government and push for tighter border security and anti‑fraud cooperation contrasts with escalating protection crises tied to Myanmar’s conflict, including record Rohingya deaths at sea in 2025 and ongoing departures into 2026. UNHCR’s warnings and the refugee chief’s focus on trauma in Bangladesh, alongside BRAC’s call to coordinate anti‑trafficking efforts in Cox’s Bazar, align on the need for regional cooperation, legal pathways, and sustained funding. Watch whether security‑centric engagement with Nay Pyi Taw is matched by concrete steps on rights, protection, and financing—especially the underfunded 2025 Joint Response Plan—to curb dangerous movements and exploitation.

Tracking: Myanmar · NUG · Rohingya

Geography: Myanmar (Burma), Rakhine State, Yangon, Naypyidaw, Sagaing Region, Magway Region, Mandalay Region, Chin State, Kachin State, Shan State, Bangladesh, Cox's Bazar, Buthidaung, Maungdaw, Sittwe, Thailand-Myanmar border, India (Mizoram, Manipur), China (Yunnan border), Bay of Bengal

1. Wang Yi Backs Myanmar Government, Border Security, and Crackdown on Telecom Scams

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi ended a five-day tour of Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar on Sunday, becoming the first senior foreign visitor to Myanmar since its new government was elected.

In Nay Pyi Taw on Saturday, he met President Min Aung Hlaing—elected on April 3—and pledged that China “firmly supports Myanmar in safeguarding its national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.

” Beijing said it will help the government engage more with multilateral platforms. Wang also pressed for stronger cooperation in energy, trade and investment, and closer security coordination to stabilize the border and crack down on online gambling and telecom fraud.

He conferred with Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe and noted consensus on post‑earthquake reconstruction and the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor. Min Aung Hlaing told Wang Myanmar would not allow activities harming China’s interests on its soil.

The visit capped broader regional outreach that also sought to deepen security dialogue with Thailand and Cambodia.

Key facts:

- Wang Yi ended a five-day trip to Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar on Sunday.

- He met President Min Aung Hlaing in Nay Pyi Taw on Saturday.

- Min Aung Hlaing was elected president on April 3.

- China pledged help for Myanmar to engage more with multilateral platforms.

Why it matters: Beijing’s endorsement strengthens Min Aung Hlaing’s external legitimacy and could ease Myanmar’s diplomatic isolation via multilateral engagement. China gains leverage on border stability, suppression of telecom-fraud and online gambling networks, and momentum for CMEC and reconstruction projects. If tangible security cooperation and project restarts follow, Nay Pyi Taw will gain resources and diplomatic space that can reshape regional calculations. Watch for cross-border anti-scam operations, concrete CMEC and reconstruction deals, and signs of broader inclusion of Myanmar in regional and multilateral forums.

2. UNHCR: Nearly 900 Rohingya dead or missing in 2025 sea crossings

UNHCR reports nearly 900 Rohingya dead or missing during 2025 sea journeys in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal—the deadliest year on record for maritime movements in South and South-East Asia and the highest mortality rate of any major refugee sea route worldwide.

Of 6,500 people who attempted crossings in 2025, one in seven died or disappeared; over half of travelers were women and children.

The toll includes a boat that left Bangladesh on March 26 and reportedly capsized, leaving at least 250 missing; nine survivors were rescued near the Andaman Islands on April 9.

Despite the risks, more than 2,800 people undertook similar journeys between January and April 13, 2026, typically departing Cox’s Bazar or Myanmar’s Rakhine State for Indonesia or Malaysia.

UNHCR links departures to ongoing conflict and persecution in Myanmar, lack of citizenship prospects, and deep aid cuts and insecurity in Bangladesh’s camps, and urges root-cause action, expanded legal pathways, stronger regional cooperation, and urgent funding for the 2025 Joint Response Plan, currently only 53% financed.

Key facts:

- Nearly 900 Rohingya dead or missing in 2025 sea journeys, UNHCR reports.

- Of 6,500 attempting crossings in 2025, one in seven died or disappeared.

- Boat departing Bangladesh on Mar 26 capsized; at least 250 missing.

- Nine survivors rescued near the Andaman Islands on Apr 9.

- More than 2,800 Rohingya traveled by sea between Jan and Apr 13, 2026.

Why it matters: The figures highlight how unresolved drivers—persecution and statelessness in Myanmar, plus deep funding cuts in Bangladesh—are pushing Rohingya onto increasingly lethal routes while smuggling networks profit. Without urgent financing for the 2025 Joint Response Plan, expanded safe and legal pathways, and stronger regional cooperation, departures and fatalities are likely to persist. Coastal states bordering the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal will continue to face search-and-rescue and reception pressures. Watch for new funding pledges, concrete regional coordination measures, and shifts in departure volumes.

3. UN refugee chief: Rohingya in Bangladesh ‘drained’ by trauma

Reuters reports that the UN refugee chief described hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims who fled violence in Myanmar to Bangladesh as “drained” by trauma.

The assessment underscores the enduring psychological toll on one of the world’s largest refugee populations and signals that the impacts of mass displacement extend well beyond immediate physical safety.

While the report focuses on the trauma burden, the implication is that host communities and aid systems in Bangladesh face sustained pressure to provide protection and mental health support.

The remarks also highlight that, absent credible guarantees of safety and rights in Myanmar, the prospects for safe, voluntary, and dignified return remain constrained by refugees’ lived experiences of violence.

This framing shifts attention toward longer-term care, stabilization, and risk mitigation in displacement settings, and away from short-cycle relief alone.

It also reinforces the need for sustained international engagement to prevent further harm and destabilization linked to prolonged, untreated trauma.

Key facts:

- Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya fled to Bangladesh from Myanmar.

- The UN refugee chief said they are “drained” by trauma.

- Reuters reported the assessment in a new update.

Why it matters: Severe, widespread trauma undermines refugees’ capacity to rebuild lives, complicates planning for safe return, and heightens protection risks in densely populated camps. Bangladesh shoulders prolonged social and fiscal burdens, while aid groups must pivot to sustained psychosocial care, child protection, and community stabilization. Continued international support and protection-centered diplomacy are critical as trauma-driven vulnerability can fuel exploitation, insecurity, and regional spillovers if unmet.

4. BRAC workshop urges coordinated crackdown on Rohingya camp trafficking in Cox's Bazar

Experts at a BRAC-organised workshop in Cox’s Bazar warned that human trafficking in the Rohingya camps persists despite multi-agency efforts, calling for tighter coordination among the judiciary, law enforcement and camp authorities.

Speakers cited systemic barriers to justice for survivors, including weak evidence management, high police workloads, frequent staff transfers, difficulties registering cases, and informal settlements of serious crimes.

A 2025 Anti-Trafficking Working Group report presented at the event found 33% of victims are women and girls and 25% are under 18, with victims up 28. 8% from the previous year.

BRAC reported providing legal assistance to 784 trafficking survivors in host communities and camps from 2017 to March 2026, and training 400 Rohingya teachers, volunteers and community leaders through 18 prevention sessions.

Participants included officials from the Armed Police Battalion, judiciary, camp administration, IOM, and UNHCR, with more than 60 representatives from international organisations and NGOs attending to develop actionable recommendations.

Key facts:

- ATWG 2025 report: 33% of victims are women and girls; 25% are under 18.

- Victims increased 28.8% in 2025 compared with the previous year.

- BRAC provided legal aid to 784 survivors from 2017 to March 2026.

- BRAC trained 400 Rohingya through 18 anti-trafficking prevention sessions.

- Over 60 representatives from international organisations and NGOs attended.

Why it matters: Rising victim numbers alongside persistent justice barriers point to inadequate deterrence and protection in the camps. Better coordination among police, judiciary, camp authorities and UN agencies could strengthen evidence collection, case registration and survivor support, improving accountability. If joint protocols and targeted resourcing do not follow, informal settlements and impunity are likely to persist. Watch whether workshop recommendations translate into inter-agency procedures, improved evidence management, and sustained staffing to reduce vulnerabilities and enable prosecutions.